5 Key Takeaways
- Direct lending performance remains favorable: Direct lending index returns continue to hold up well, even as spreads have compressed across credit markets, reflecting disciplined underwriting, senior secured positioning, manageably low loss rates, and a steady yield premium.
- Economic backdrop is constructive: U.S. growth exceeded expectations in 2025, reinforcing a positive outlook for credit into 2026. Economic conditions remain supportive for lenders and borrowers alike, as evidenced in our Credit Market Survey, which found sponsors and borrowers increasingly optimistic about revenue and earnings growth.
- AI is both a threat and an opportunity: Artificial intelligence is reshaping investment cycles and business models, creating both disruption and efficiency gains. Lenders need disciplined frameworks to evaluate risk and capture upside.
- Performance dispersion underscores the need for discipline: Differentiation among lenders is increasingly driven by credit discipline, origination capabilities, and experience through cycles.
- M&A and deal activity improving: Deal flow is building as rates ease, fundamentals strengthen, and sponsors face mounting pressure to return capital, setting up a favorable M&A environment for 2026.
Executive Summary
As we enter 2026, private credit continues to reward discipline and selectivity. Despite negative headlines, direct lending performance has held up well, outperforming leveraged loans and only modestly trailing high yield. This reflects a macro backdrop that remains supportive for credit, with moderating inflation, easing monetary policy, and broadly healthy borrower fundamentals.
Yet the landscape is not without its challenges. Performance dispersion among lenders remains elevated, reinforcing the importance of underwriting rigor, origination access, and the ability to be selective. At the same time, rapid advances in artificial intelligence are reshaping business models and investment cycles, creating both opportunity and new sources of risk that require clear-eyed evaluation.
Antares’ 2026 Outlook outlines where we see the market headed, why discipline endures as an all-weather strategy, and how experienced lenders are positioning for opportunity in a more selective environment.
As we enter 2026, private credit continues to reward discipline. In a more selective environment, experience, underwriting rigor, and strong sponsor relationships matter more than ever.
Market Signals
Direct lending yield premiums remain strong
Even as spreads compress across credit markets, direct lending continues to offer a meaningful yield premium supported by senior-secured loans and disciplined underwriting.
New Issue Spreads
| Month | Direct Lending 1st Lien | Leveraged Loans B/B+ | Leveraged Loans BB/BB- | High Yield | S&P500 Earnings Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan-21 | 583 | 408 | 272 | 487 | 278 |
| Feb-21 | 675 | 417 | 294 | 496 | 301 |
| Mar-21 | 606 | 443 | 316 | 481 | 328 |
| Apr-21 | 591 | 472 | 345 | 422 | 334 |
| May-21 | 554 | 428 | 301 | 377 | 356 |
| Jun-21 | 550 | 435 | 314 | 358 | 375 |
| Jul-21 | 559 | 435 | 298 | 434 | 377 |
| Aug-21 | 570 | 457 | 337 | 389 | 381 |
| Sep-21 | 573 | 446 | 323 | 374 | 394 |
| Oct-21 | 563 | 437 | 314 | 460 | 410 |
| Nov-21 | 551 | 428 | 348 | 384 | 408 |
| Dec-21 | 548 | 424 | 304 | 446 | 423 |
| Jan-22 | 580 | 402 | 307 | 383 | 433 |
| Feb-22 | 553 | 420 | 295 | 488 | 446 |
| Mar-22 | 564 | 460 | 324 | 515 | 451 |
| Apr-22 | 573 | 405 | 281 | 460 | 446 |
| May-22 | 559 | 431 | 326 | 518 | 481 |
| Jun-22 | 580 | 466 | -- | 424 | 493 |
| Jul-22 | 575 | 514 | -- | 635 | 487 |
| Aug-22 | 586 | 503 | -- | 443 | 454 |
| Sep-22 | 606 | 473 | -- | 417 | 486 |
| Oct-22 | 593 | 463 | 345 | 787 | 489 |
| Nov-22 | 638 | 452 | 344 | 539 | 453 |
| Dec-22 | 645 | 468 | 341 | 602 | 442 |
| Jan-23 | 654 | 460 | 370 | 478 | 438 |
| Feb-23 | 631 | 421 | 328 | 402 | 427 |
| Mar-23 | 670 | 450 | 304 | 393 | 441 |
| Apr-23 | 642 | 406 | 328 | 543 | 430 |
| May-23 | 638 | 401 | 302 | 491 | 432 |
| Jun-23 | 620 | 402 | 295 | 503 | 417 |
| Jul-23 | 625 | 422 | 318 | 439 | 404 |
| Aug-23 | 609 | 430 | 298 | 452 | 414 |
| Sep-23 | 619 | 406 | 276 | 496 | 418 |
| Oct-23 | 601 | 434 | 286 | 513 | 439 |
| Nov-23 | 591 | 427 | 294 | 433 | 425 |
| Dec-23 | 583 | 404 | 280 | 371 | 411 |
| Jan-24 | 579 | 371 | 258 | 410 | 400 |
| Feb-24 | 566 | 391 | 253 | 339 | 383 |
| Mar-24 | 568 | 377 | 239 | 320 | 370 |
| Apr-24 | 564 | 382 | 241 | 410 | 379 |
| May-24 | 549 | 340 | 230 | 357 | 371 |
| Jun-24 | 537 | 343 | 237 | 334 | 362 |
| Jul-24 | 515 | 355 | 243 | 386 | 356 |
| Aug-24 | 511 | 366 | 240 | 377 | 361 |
| Sep-24 | 524 | 363 | 245 | 360 | 356 |
| Oct-24 | 527 | 377 | 245 | 348 | 351 |
| Nov-24 | 525 | 330 | 218 | 315 | 349 |
| Dec-24 | 524 | 315 | 225 | 348 | 350 |
| Jan-25 | 522 | 317 | 226 | 330 | 355 |
| Feb-25 | 517 | 325 | 220 | 334 | 355 |
| Mar-25 | 510 | 336 | 221 | 340 | 381 |
| Apr-25 | 504 | 375 | -- | 375 | 404 |
| May-25 | 518 | 334 | 269 | 334 | 373 |
| Jun-25 | 500 | 326 | 243 | 374 | 359 |
| Jul-25 | 495 | 303 | 232 | 351 | 344 |
| Aug-25 | 502 | 306 | 228 | 315 | 338 |
| Sep-25 | 493 | 297 | 236 | 286 | 329 |
| Oct-25 | 486 | 305 | 227 | 313 | 323 |
| Nov-25 | 497 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Source: Cliffwater Direct Lending Index site for Direct Lending 1st Lien spread; Pitchbook LCD for Leveraged Loan and High Yield spreads, multpl.com for S&P500 earnings yield – all through October 2025.
M&A volume up less than expected, but gaining momentum
Deal volume has recovered more gradually than expected, but momentum is improving as rates ease and sponsors face increasing pressure to return capital.
U.S. Direct Lending M&A Related Volume for Companies with $20-$120M of EBITDA
| Year | Amount |
|---|---|
| 2013 | 7.4B |
| 2014 | 15.23B |
| 2015 | 34.34B |
| 2016 | 44.75B |
| 2017 | 58.05B |
| 2018 | 61.99B |
| 2019 | 65.54B |
| 2020 | 53.84B |
| 2021 | 144.26B |
| 2022 | 91.75B |
| 2023 | 61.72B |
| 2024 | 97.01B |
| -- | |
| YTD-3Q24 | 62.47B |
| YTD-3Q25 | 67.86B |
Source: LSEG LPC Loanconnector Direct Lending Module through 3Q25.
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