5 Key Takeaways

  1. Direct lending performance remains favorable: Direct lending index returns continue to hold up well, even as spreads have compressed across credit markets, reflecting disciplined underwriting, senior secured positioning, manageably low loss rates, and a steady yield premium.
  2. Economic backdrop is constructive: U.S. growth exceeded expectations in 2025, reinforcing a positive outlook for credit into 2026. Economic conditions remain supportive for lenders and borrowers alike, as evidenced in our Credit Market Survey, which found sponsors and borrowers increasingly optimistic about revenue and earnings growth.
  3. AI is both a threat and an opportunity: Artificial intelligence is reshaping investment cycles and business models, creating both disruption and efficiency gains. Lenders need disciplined frameworks to evaluate risk and capture upside.
  4. Performance dispersion underscores the need for discipline: Differentiation among lenders is increasingly driven by credit discipline, origination capabilities, and experience through cycles.
  5. M&A and deal activity improving: Deal flow is building as rates ease, fundamentals strengthen, and sponsors face mounting pressure to return capital, setting up a favorable M&A environment for 2026.

Executive Summary

As we enter 2026, private credit continues to reward discipline and selectivity. Despite negative headlines, direct lending performance has held up well, outperforming leveraged loans and only modestly trailing high yield. This reflects a macro backdrop that remains supportive for credit, with moderating inflation, easing monetary policy, and broadly healthy borrower fundamentals.

Yet the landscape is not without its challenges. Performance dispersion among lenders remains elevated, reinforcing the importance of underwriting rigor, origination access, and the ability to be selective. At the same time, rapid advances in artificial intelligence are reshaping business models and investment cycles, creating both opportunity and new sources of risk that require clear-eyed evaluation.

Antares’ 2026 Outlook outlines where we see the market headed, why discipline endures as an all-weather strategy, and how experienced lenders are positioning for opportunity in a more selective environment.

As we enter 2026, private credit continues to reward discipline. In a more selective environment, experience, underwriting rigor, and strong sponsor relationships matter more than ever.

Timothy Lyne

Chief Executive Officer, Antares Capital

Market Signals

Direct lending yield premiums remain strong

Even as spreads compress across credit markets, direct lending continues to offer a meaningful yield premium supported by senior-secured loans and disciplined underwriting.

New Issue Spreads

Month Direct Lending 1st Lien Leveraged Loans B/B+ Leveraged Loans BB/BB- High Yield S&P500 Earnings Yield
Jan-21 583 408 272 487 278
Feb-21 675 417 294 496 301
Mar-21 606 443 316 481 328
Apr-21 591 472 345 422 334
May-21 554 428 301 377 356
Jun-21 550 435 314 358 375
Jul-21 559 435 298 434 377
Aug-21 570 457 337 389 381
Sep-21 573 446 323 374 394
Oct-21 563 437 314 460 410
Nov-21 551 428 348 384 408
Dec-21 548 424 304 446 423
Jan-22 580 402 307 383 433
Feb-22 553 420 295 488 446
Mar-22 564 460 324 515 451
Apr-22 573 405 281 460 446
May-22 559 431 326 518 481
Jun-22 580 466 -- 424 493
Jul-22 575 514 -- 635 487
Aug-22 586 503 -- 443 454
Sep-22 606 473 -- 417 486
Oct-22 593 463 345 787 489
Nov-22 638 452 344 539 453
Dec-22 645 468 341 602 442
Jan-23 654 460 370 478 438
Feb-23 631 421 328 402 427
Mar-23 670 450 304 393 441
Apr-23 642 406 328 543 430
May-23 638 401 302 491 432
Jun-23 620 402 295 503 417
Jul-23 625 422 318 439 404
Aug-23 609 430 298 452 414
Sep-23 619 406 276 496 418
Oct-23 601 434 286 513 439
Nov-23 591 427 294 433 425
Dec-23 583 404 280 371 411
Jan-24 579 371 258 410 400
Feb-24 566 391 253 339 383
Mar-24 568 377 239 320 370
Apr-24 564 382 241 410 379
May-24 549 340 230 357 371
Jun-24 537 343 237 334 362
Jul-24 515 355 243 386 356
Aug-24 511 366 240 377 361
Sep-24 524 363 245 360 356
Oct-24 527 377 245 348 351
Nov-24 525 330 218 315 349
Dec-24 524 315 225 348 350
Jan-25 522 317 226 330 355
Feb-25 517 325 220 334 355
Mar-25 510 336 221 340 381
Apr-25 504 375 -- 375 404
May-25 518 334 269 334 373
Jun-25 500 326 243 374 359
Jul-25 495 303 232 351 344
Aug-25 502 306 228 315 338
Sep-25 493 297 236 286 329
Oct-25 486 305 227 313 323
Nov-25 497 -- -- -- --

Source: Cliffwater Direct Lending Index site for Direct Lending 1st Lien spread; Pitchbook LCD for Leveraged Loan and High Yield spreads, multpl.com for S&P500 earnings yield – all through October 2025.

M&A volume up less than expected, but gaining momentum

Deal volume has recovered more gradually than expected, but momentum is improving as rates ease and sponsors face increasing pressure to return capital.

U.S. Direct Lending M&A Related Volume for Companies with $20-$120M of EBITDA

Year Amount
2013 7.4B
2014 15.23B
2015 34.34B
2016 44.75B
2017 58.05B
2018 61.99B
2019 65.54B
2020 53.84B
2021 144.26B
2022 91.75B
2023 61.72B
2024 97.01B
--
YTD-3Q24 62.47B
YTD-3Q25 67.86B

Source: LSEG LPC Loanconnector Direct Lending Module through 3Q25.

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